Some Casino Odds facts from Yuchun Lee, professional blackjack player and former member of the MIT card counting team.
Strategies and Odds:
- In Baccarat, the game with the best odds for those without skills, you'll lose around 3 per 1.50 to 100 from the casino.
- Memorizing a basic strategy chart in Blackjack can minimize loss to around 60 cents per a hundred dollars.
- Card counting in Blackjack involves tracking face cards and aces. More aces mean a higher chance of hitting blackjack, while more face cards increase the chance of the dealer busting.
- The Martingale algorithm, which doubles your bet after every loss, is generally ineffective due to table limits.
- In Craps, the follow-on bets offer even odds, allowing prolonged play without losing money.
- In Poker, the best strategy is to be highly skilled and play against less skilled players with a lot of money to lose.
- Roulette is generally impossible to win consistently due to the casino's edge, though some older casinos with unbalanced wheels could have exploitable biases.
Casino Policies and Technology:
- Casinos tend not to kick players out for winning, banking on the law of large numbers for eventual profit. However, if a player is identified as a professional with an edge, the casino can eject them using trespassing laws.
- In New Jersey, casinos can't kick players out but can ruin the game for them by putting the cut cards at the front, making card counting impossible.
- Casinos may use RFID embedded chips to track player betting and identify anomalies, possibly flagging certain players for observation.
Psychology and Gambling:
- The thrill of winning often outweighs the pain of losing for true gamblers, driving them to continue gambling.
Slot Machines:
- Slot machines are labor-efficient and major revenue generators for the casino, with adjustable odds ranging from 80% to 99% payout.
- Progressive slot machines increase the potential payout as players lose, with optimal play possible when the bank is above a certain level.
Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistical Concepts:
- Each game has a different edge calculated through Monte Carlo simulations, where millions of hands are simulated to calculate expected wins or losses.
- The concepts of expected value and the law of large numbers underpin casino games' outcomes, with every hand being independent, illustrating the "hot hand fallacy."
- Splitting aces and eights in Blackjack provides higher winning odds according to Monte Carlo simulations.